Market Commentary | November 22, 2023
Pass the Dramamine
In January, I will begin my 41st year as an investment advisor. That tenure should lend credence to my observation that interest rate volatility has never been more dizzying.
Pass the Dramamine
In January, I will begin my 41st year as an investment advisor. That tenure should lend credence to my observation that interest rate volatility has never been more dizzying.
With the September 20th release of the Federal Reserve’s statement we learned that they would pause in their inflation fighting, interest rate hiking campaign.
Over the last year or so, our exposure to residential real estate investment has been very limited. It’s not that business hasn’t been very good for apartment owners; from the start of 2021 through 2022, rents on lease renewals routinely jumped 15 to 20%.
Higher interest rates have made commercial real estate prohibitively expensive. Higher interest rates have destabilized the regional banking system through the evaporation of no-cost deposits, which resulted in a raft of stricter banking regulations that further restrict commercial real estate lending.
The Labor Department on Wednesday reported that its index of consumer prices rose just 0.2% in June from a month earlier. Market watchers breathed a sigh of relief, but the Fed quickly warned that its battle with inflation is not yet done and at least three Fed Governors indicated we would see two more 25 basis point rate hikes this year.
Over the last year and a half of this hyper-inflationary environment, we’ve joined the legions of other investors in ritualistically awaiting the monthly release of fresh Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Most of the time these reports are followed by the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and their decision on the direction of interest rates.